Arthur Lin
Economics Columnist
Arthur Lin is Yield Update's economics columnist. He covers growth, inflation and economic policy in Washington, from elections to budget negotiations, and puts the latest data in the context of past business cycles.
Stories
- EconomyExplainer
How to Read a Preliminary GDP Estimate, With Japan's Third Quarter as the Example
A first GDP reading comes in two forms, a quarterly change and an annualized rate, and it is often revised. Japan's April-June figure, raised from 1.1 percent to 1.4 percent annualized, shows how much can move.
Senate Democrats Tie Dec. 11 Funding Deadline to Limits on Iran War Spending
Four Democratic senators say they will oppose any short-term spending bill that lets the administration keep funding the war against Iran. Federal funding runs out Dec. 11, and a stopgap needs about seven Democratic votes in the Senate.
- EconomyExplainer
How to Read the Monthly Retail Sales Report
The Census Bureau's October figure arrives Tuesday, and economists expect a 0.2 percent gain. That is the same size as the average revision to the first estimate.
Senate Banking Chair Seeks Testimony From Lutnick and Huang as Nvidia Scrutiny Widens
Sen. Tim Scott asked Jensen Huang to appear on Dec. 3 and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Dec. 10, NBC News reported. Lutnick has agreed to testify voluntarily, his spokesperson said.
Congress Is a Month From a Shutdown, With Democrats Split Over Iran War Funding
Lawmakers have until Dec. 11 to fund the government. Democrats want a short-term bill but disagree over whether to use it to restrict money for the war with Iran.
October Consumer Prices Rise 0.4 Percent, Above Forecasts; Waller Says a Half-Point Hike Should Be Considered
The consumer price index rose 0.4 percent in October and core prices rose 0.3 percent, each a tenth of a point above forecasts. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said a half-point increase in December should be considered if core inflation came in around 0.3 percent, as it did.
Congress Returns to a Dec. 11 Funding Deadline and Articles of Impeachment Against Hegseth
Lawmakers came back on Nov. 9 for a lame-duck session with government funding set to expire on Dec. 11 and the debt near its $41.1 trillion ceiling. Rep. Thomas Massie filed impeachment articles against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth the same day.
- EconomyAnalysis
October CPI Is Expected to Cool to 0.3 Percent in the Last Inflation Report Before December's Fed Meeting
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect Tuesday's consumer price index to rise half as fast as in September. It is the last inflation report before the Federal Reserve's Dec. 8–9 meeting, where traders expect a rate increase.
Trump Names Stephen Miller Chief of Staff as a Lame-Duck Congress Faces a Dec. 11 Funding Deadline
Miller replaces Susie Wiles on Monday, days after Republicans lost control of Congress. Before Democrats take over in January, lawmakers must keep the government funded and renew the Pentagon policy bill.
Employers Added 165,000 Jobs in October as Revisions Lifted the Late Summer
Payroll growth ran well above its 12-month average and hourly pay rose 0.4 percent. The household survey was softer: 339,000 more people were working part time because they could not get full-time hours.
Democrats Win the House and Senate, and Markets Price a Divided Washington
The Associated Press called both chambers for Democrats after Tuesday's vote. The Dow had its best day since April 2025 on Wednesday, and Thursday's tech selloff more than erased it. Senate races in Alaska and Mississippi are still uncalled.
- EconomyAnalysis
November's Refunding Offers $125 Billion
The November 4 statement sets a $58 billion 3-year note, a $42 billion 10-year note, and a $25 billion 30-year bond.
- EconomyAnalysis
Four Days Later, the Range Is Still 3.75% to 4%
The October 28 decision has not been amended. Inflation, in the statement's word, remains elevated. The September CPI index implies a 3.7 percent twelve-month change.
The CPI Index for July 2026
The seasonally adjusted consumer price index was 332.813. Over the twelve months from the index a year earlier, that is a change of 3.3 percent.
- EconomyExplainer
A Level Is Not a Change
The funds rate can be high and unchanged. The interesting sentence is often the second one.
The CPI Index for May 2026
The seasonally adjusted consumer price index was 333.979. Over the twelve months from the index a year earlier, that is a change of 4.2 percent.
The CPI Index for March 2026
The seasonally adjusted consumer price index was 330.293. Over the twelve months from the index a year earlier, that is a change of 3.3 percent.
- EconomyAnalysis
Volcker Is Not a Costume
The early-1980s funds rate was a different regime. Invoking the name does not import the policy.
The CPI Index for January 2026
The seasonally adjusted consumer price index was 326.588. Over the twelve months from the index a year earlier, that is a change of 2.4 percent.
The CPI Index for November 2025
The seasonally adjusted consumer price index was 325.063. Over the twelve months from the index a year earlier, that is a change of 2.7 percent.
- EconomyAnalysis
A Rate Cycle Is Not a Personality
Hiking and cutting are sequences of decisions. They are not moods, and they do not rhyme on command.
- EconomyExplainer
How the CPI Is Built
A basket, a set of prices, and a base. The index is not the inflation rate. The rate is a change in the index.